$283 Billion and Climbing: Business Jet Deliveries Poised for Growth
Honeywell’s latest outlook predicts a decade of steady expansion led by strong North American demand and record OEM backlogs.
Photo: Alec Cooks / Unsplash
The mid-decade outlook for business aviation is decidedly bright. Honeywell’s 2025 Global Business Aviation Outlook projects that operators worldwide will acquire roughly 8,500 new business jets valued at $283 billion between 2025 and 2034, marking a sustained return to pre-pandemic growth levels.
The forecast, now in its 34th year, draws from surveys of 312 operators representing 1,199 aircraft, alongside global economic data and OEM production schedules. Honeywell anticipates deliveries will climb to 740 new aircraft in 2025, up from pandemic-era lows, with compound annual growth of about 3 percent through the next decade.
North America continues to dominate the market, expected to account for 71 percent of deliveries in 2025, followed by Europe (14 percent), Latin America (7 percent), Asia Pacific (5 percent), and the Middle East and Africa (3 percent). Large-cabin jets will represent roughly two-thirds of total spending, underscoring continued appetite for long-range capability.
Fractional ownership remains a notable growth story. The global fractional fleet has expanded 65 percent since 2019, as both private owners and corporate flight departments use shares to supplement wholly owned aircraft. Nearly half of operators surveyed said they turn to fractional programs to boost capacity, while others cited maintenance downtime and delivery delays as drivers.
Operators remain optimistic about flight activity, with more than 90 percent expecting to fly at least as many hours in 2026 as in 2025 and nearly one-third projecting increases. That confidence is reflected in strong OEM order books—20 percent of surveyed operators already have firm aircraft orders, and 46 percent plan to expand their fleets.
Performance remains the top purchase driver, well ahead of cost and customer support. “Range” ranked as the single most important consideration, followed by low operating cost and payload. Buyers also continue to weigh technology and sustainability: 81 percent of operators believe that developing more fuel-efficient aircraft and engines is key to achieving emissions goals, while more than 60 percent see sustainable aviation fuel as part of the solution—though cost and availability remain barriers.
Honeywell’s findings suggest a stable decade ahead—steady demand, fuller order books, and a continued shift toward longer-range, fuel-efficient aircraft that keep business aviation on course for sustained growth.
