Marriott’s Luxury Engines Keep Pulling Ahead as Global Travel Splinters
Marriott’s Q3 results show a widening gap between the high end and everything else—and a clearer picture of where demand is actually holding.
The new JW Marriott Tokyo. Photo: Courtesy of Marriott
Marriott’s latest earnings paint a familiar picture, but the contours of where the money is moving are getting sharper. The company reported better-than-expected Q3 results—EPS came in at $2.47 versus forecasts of $2.38—and once again, luxury was the stabilizing force in an otherwise uneven travel landscape. Global RevPAR rose only 0.5% this quarter, but luxury RevPAR climbed 4%, extending a run that now spans several reporting cycles.
That outperformance matters because of the company’s scale: 10% of Marriott’s rooms sit in the luxury tier, and another 42% in the full-service premium tier. With high-end travelers showing no signs of reducing spend, that upper-end concentration continues to insulate Marriott from softness in select-service brands, particularly in the U.S. and Canada, where RevPAR declined 0.4%. Group travel slowed as well, down 3% in Q3, and business transient held flat. Government travel fell sharply—down 14%—pulling down those segments overall. But leisure remained solid globally, rising 1%.
The regional story offers more texture. Asia Pacific once again led the company’s RevPAR gains, up nearly 5% on strong international inflow and double-digit rooms growth. EMEA climbed 2.5% but would have been closer to 5% when adjusting for last year’s Olympics in France and Euro 2024 in Germany. CALA improved nearly 3%, with Puerto Rico and Rio buoyed by large events. Greater China stayed flat, although Marriott noted market-share growth and said results would have been modestly positive had it not been for multiple typhoons.
Even with a mixed U.S. picture, Marriott is still expanding faster than many expected. The company now has a record 596,000 rooms in the pipeline, with more than 250,000 already under construction. About 30% of signings and openings this year have been conversions—an area where Marriott’s scale and lower affiliation costs give it a competitive edge. Net room growth is on track to reach 5% in 2025.
One under-the-radar bright spot is the loyalty ecosystem. Bonvoy membership has surged to nearly 260 million members, up 18% year-over-year. The co-branded credit card portfolio is quietly becoming one of Marriott’s most powerful revenue engines: card fees rose 13% this quarter, and global card spending has increased roughly 80% since the last major deal was signed in 2017. Marriott confirmed that negotiations for a renewed credit card agreement are underway, hinting that the scale of the program today—far larger than in 2017—could yield richer economics for the company.
Looking ahead, Marriott expects global RevPAR to rise 1% to 2% in Q4, with full-year growth between 1.5% and 2.5%. The company believes 2026 could mirror that range, with the 2026 World Cup adding an estimated 30 to 35 basis points to global RevPAR. The broader message: the high end keeps carrying more of the load, international markets are increasingly important, and the luxury traveler remains the most reliable force in the system.
