Higher Airfares, Less Certainty: What UN Tourism Sees Ahead
International tourism continued to grow in early 2026, but mounting geopolitical tensions are clouding the outlook for the months ahead.
Photo: Calin Stan / Unsplash
International tourism continued to grow in the first quarter of 2026, though mounting geopolitical tensions and rising travel costs are beginning to weigh on the industry’s outlook.
According to new data from UN Tourism, 307 million people traveled internationally between January and March, which was a 2% increase over the same period last year. The growth came despite significant disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, which caused a sharp slowdown in that region’s travel demand when it intensified in March.
UN Tourism said international arrivals were tracking roughly 2.5% ahead of 2025 through January and February, but growth cooled considerably in March, when arrivals increased just 0.4%. The organization now expects the conflict to reduce global tourism growth by 1 to 2 percentage points, bringing it to 3% to 4% for 2026, down from its original forecast.
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation,” said UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais. “Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people traveling internationally, a 2% increase on last year.”
Europe is still the world’s strongest-performing tourism region, bringing in more than 130 million international visitors during the quarter, up 4% year over year. Africa also posted 4% growth, while Asia-Pacific arrivals rose 3%. (The Americas recorded a more modest 2% increase, bolstered by Central America, where arrivals climbed 18%.)
The Middle East was the clear outlier: international arrivals to the region fell 14% in the first quarter, with several Gulf destinations reporting significant declines. Egypt, however, bucked the trend, recording a 16% increase in arrivals.
UN Tourism also noted that flight cancellations, rerouting of air traffic, higher oil prices, and concerns about jet fuel availability are contributing to increased airfares and reduced capacity in some markets—all pressures that could encourage travelers to choose destinations closer to home while placing greater emphasis on value.
For advisors, the report points to a market that remains active but increasingly sensitive to price and uncertainty. A survey of tourism professionals found that 64% believe the Middle East conflict is negatively affecting travel demand for their destinations and high transportation and accommodation costs ranked among the industry’s top concerns for the remainder of the year.
Despite the headwinds, UN Tourism’s latest confidence survey still reflects cautious optimism heading into the Northern Hemisphere summer season. The organization flagged major events, like the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup, could still provide an additional boost to travel demand in the Americas during the coming months.
